Normally, by this point in the championship, a player has separated himself sufficiently from the pack, resulting in an advantage capable of ensuring almost unanimous forecast favor: since 2021 has been designated as a particular year, only a handful of games remain open this year, and identifying the favorite is far from simple, if not impossible.
The case presented by those who can be considered favorites based on the following factors: individual numbers, team success, consistency, and storyline charm will be examined in this article.
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Individual numbers: excellent, TB12 leads the NFL in some statistical categories on quarterbacks, and given that the MVP has now become a prize prerogative of quarterbacks.
Team Success: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a battle for the NFC's top seed, which tells us everything we need to know about their season.
Consistency: Brady was the MVP for the majority of the season, except for a slight drop - by his standards - between Weeks 10 and 12, when he failed to go beyond the "modest" passer rating of 90 by throwing five touchdowns against four interceptions in three games in a row.
He also threw at least four touchdowns in six games.
Storyline Charm: He's 44, and you'd think a couple of lines would back up my claim, but the fact that a 44-year-old is among the MVP favorites is enough to make him the favorite.
It makes no sense for a person that age to dominate in a sport like this, but Brady is once again defying biology by consistently completing throws that many people in their twenties couldn't even imagine.
Probability of success: very high.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Individual numbers: As usual, excellent, with numerous touchdowns and few interceptions. Rodgers has gotten us far too used to him.
Team success: excellent, aside from a couple of games - including one played without him for positivity at Covid - the Green Bay Packers have consistently produced some of the best football in the league, and it appears that they have found a new gear in recent weeks that could lead them to play in that game in February that they have yet to win.
Consistency: fantastic. Rodgers only missed one release all year, his debut against the New Orleans Saints, and after that, except for a lackluster performance against the Seahawks, he cruised along at the same levels he displayed last year when, tragically, the MVP was awarded.
Storyline Charm: It's hard to decide whether Brady MVP at 44 or Rodgers MVP, when separated at home, is more intriguing, leaving aside the health / philosophical/moral issues.
Few could have predicted such a Rodgers, especially in light of a lack of motivation that someone had enjoyed predicting: like Brady, this man is fueled by a desire to throw his errors of judgment in the face of others, and I assume he is having a little fun playing as MVP a few months after an almost certain farewell.
Probability of success: very high, the prize, I believe, will go to the winner of the two-way race between him and Brady.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Individual numbers: very good, but not as impressive as the previous two gentlemen's. Murray, on the other hand, brings a spectacularity coefficient to the equation that few other players can match.
s: Extremely high, the Cardinals have been the best team in the NFL so far, with an extremely high ranking.
Consistency: pThe only game of his season that we could call disappointing was the one against the Green Bay Packers, in which he was still an AJ Green amnesia away from victory.
Storyline Charm: Murray is not only one of the league's most electrifying players, but he can also be seen as the NFL's future face in the absence of Tom Brady.
Probability of success: Unfortunately for him, the three matches he missed due to injury have significantly complicated his case. A player who has lost more than a couple of games is extremely unlikely to win the MVP, though a strong season finale and the Cardinals' potential best NFL record could compensate for the time lost.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Individual numbers: It's a little less Mahomic than usual. I'm including him because we can't talk about MVP in 2021 without mentioning Patrick Mahomes.
Team success: The Chiefs have climbed back to the top of the AFC, the playground where they have bullied everyone for years, after a traumatic start. What's surprising is that he had nothing to do with the Chiefs' resurgence.
Consistency: He couldn't even finish a match with a passer rating of more than 90.5 for a month. In the entire year, he only played five games "from Patrick Mahomes," while the rest were likely filled with his hated brother Jackson.
Storyline Charm: Apart from the surname, there are no compelling reasons to award the MVP to Mahomes.
Probability of success: Except for Mahomes' season finale and the best AFC record, the odds are almost nil.
Even this, in all honesty, might not be enough, because giving this award to someone who has "missed" nearly half of a season's matches would be a grave insult to the award itself.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
Individual numbers: fantastic. When you consider that he is a sophomore, "fantastic" is the only word that comes to mind.
Team success: good. After an exciting start to the season, the Chargers have begun to lose a few games here and there, giving the impression that they are unable to find the consistency that is characteristic of a great team, but this is completely understandable for a team with a rookie manager and a second-year quarterback.
Consistency: good even if not excellent.
Storyline Charm: Enormous. If we toss in the prejudices that some of us had toward him before the draft, the lack of a strong link between the city and the team, the obvious difficulties that he will face as the poor fellow in charge of replacing a legend like Rivers, and his refreshing personality, Herbert MVP would be all needed to rekindle our interest in the NFL.
Probability of success: Low
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Individual Numbers: Just ask the cursed ones who got the tenth overall pick in the fantasy football draft.
Team success: medium, the Colts have found a way to return to the playoff tussle with victories, but their 7-6 record should not be interpreted as a sign of success; they are an excellent, well-structured team that would have no reason to be under 50% of the time at this point in the season.
Consistency: Taylor has scored a touchdown in every game since Week 4: he has gained at least 100 yards from scrimmage in every game since then, except the one against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, when he stopped at 97.
Storyline Charm: high. Taylor is a fantastic player who deserves all of his success: how exciting would it be if the MVP award was given to a running back for the first time since 2012?
Probability of success: low. Unfortunately, his poor team record and "wrong" position force him to settle for the likely Offensive Player of the Year award: to win the MVP, a running back must set new yardage or touchdown records.
TJ Watt, EDGE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Individual numbers: potentially historic, TJ Watt's 2021 is destined to enter the history of the discipline and become an objective correlative of relentlessness.
Team success: mediocre, given the Steelers' struggles and losses, even with him on the field, the story changes because, in the four games in which he did not play or was limited to a small number of snaps due to injury, Pittsburgh lost four times.
Texture: surreal. Watt always manages to leave his mark on the game in some way: it's time to stop defining playmakers as only receivers or running backs; with Watt on the field, the ball is never safe, and as a pass rusher, he is capable of upsetting a game to his liking.
He's the best in the NFL at his position, and he always finds a way to get to the opposing quarterback.
Watt has the potential to rewrite the all-time sack record in a single season, which is terrifying considering he missed two games due to injury and was forced out of contention in a couple of others. It's unheard of to have sixteen sacks and a half in eleven (actually ten) games.
Storyline Charm: enormous because it would not only end the quarterbacks' hegemony, but it would also show the rest of the world that this award was not created just for quarterbacks, but for any player, regardless of position.
Chance of Success: For the Steelers' role and difficulty, the chances of success are slim. But, if he manages to beat Strahan's record and drag the sluggish offense into the playoffs.
Micah Parsons, football player, Dallas Cowboys
Individual numbers: if the boy only played one position, he could easily be the leading tackler or the first to make a sack, but after all, he is unique because of his unrivaled versatility. He is famous for his unquestionable pass-rushing ability and ability as a gifted off-ball linebacker. The chance to be outrageously creative for the lucky defensive coordinator.
Team success: very good, even if I didn't focus on the team, I would focus on the defensive unit that has taken center stage.
It wasn't long ago that putting more than thirty against the Cowboys was the weekly event that all the meme pages were waiting for to generate lazy content: behind this metamorphosis, we can also see Parsons' hand.
Consistency: Excellent, Sunday after Sunday, we are forced to come up with new superlatives to describe it in some way.
Storyline Charm: infinite.
Probability of success: minimal.